GERARDO GOMEZ-RUANO, MARIO LOPEZ-VITAL, AND YURI SERBOLOV
Abstract. We provide an unbiased estimate for the presidential election that recently took place in Mexico, based on data from the first election recount done by its citizens. The recount was done as the answer to the unapologetically fraudulent electoral process that culminated with the June 2nd 2024 elections. Such recount is represent since only 10% of the ballot boxes have been reliably accounted for, approximately; it may thus be considered a sample for the entire election. Because ballot boxes can be tracked over different elections, we are able to construct a bias-corrected estimate of the true, national tally. One that is free from the effects from crime coercion and government manipulation, and therefore far more reliable than the official “count”. Our correction implies that Mrs. X´ochitl G´alvez won obtaining 50.74% of the votes, while Mrs. Claudia Sheinbaum lost obtaining only 38.82% of the votes.